Cyclone ‘Burevi’ may strengthen before Lanka landfall

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The cyclonic storm ‘Burevi’ was parked over South-West Bay of Bengal 240 km away from Trincomalee (Sri Lanka), 470 km away from Pamban (India) to the East-South-East direction, and 650 km to the East-North-East of Kanniyakumari (India) at 5.30 am Wednesday morning, an India Meteorological Department (IMD) update said.

‘Burevi’ is expected to intensify (but below severe cyclone strength) through the course of Wednesday and move to the West-North-West to cross the Sri Lanka coast around close to North of Trincomalee in the evening/night, as a cyclone with a wind speed of 80-90 km/hr gusting to 100 km/hr (just below severe cyclone strength of 89-117 km/hr).

Cyclone status for three days

Burevi is expected to retain the cyclone status post-landfall, and emerge into Gulf of Mannar and adjoining Comorin area on Thursday morning. The cyclone, with wind speeds of 70-80 km/hr gusting to 90 km/hr, would be centered very close to Pamban (South-East Tamil Nadu) around noon, but may later bend its track to West-South-West to cross the South Tamil Nadu coast between Kanniyakumari and Pamban on Friday morning for a second landfall– as a cyclone with wind speeds of 70-80 gusting to 90 km/hr.

This would mean that ‘Burevi’ will remain a cyclone for three days, with proximity to land to its either side (the island of Sri Lanka and Peninsular India) alone, preventing it from intensifying further. Earlier last week, very severe cyclone ‘Nivar’ had crossed the North Tamil Nadu coast near Puducherry.

Sri Lankan agency forecast

The Sri Lankan Meteorological Department said that Burevi will cross the island’s East Coast between Batticaloa and Point-Pedro, close to Trincomalee on Wednesday evening/night, with wind speeds of 75-85 km/hr gusting up to 95 km/hr and later emerge into the Gulf of Mannar.

Intermittent showers/thundershowers will occur in the Eastern, Northern, Northern-Central, North-Western, Central, and Sabaragamuwa provinces. Very heavy rainfall above 20 cm can be expected at some places. Showers or thundershowers at times will occur elsewhere. Heavy rainfall above 10 cm can be expected at some other places. Very strong gusty winds (80-90 km/hr) can be expected in these provinces.

Heavy to very heavy rainfall

Meanwhile, the IMD has forecast heavy to very heavy rainfall with isolated extremely heavy falls over the Kanniyakumari, Tirunelveli, Thoothukudi, Tenkasi, Ramanathapuram and Sivagangai districts in South Tamil Nadu on Wednesday and Thursday; and over Thiruvananthapuram, Kollam, Pathanamthitta and Alappuzha districts in South Kerala on Thursday. It would be isolated heavy to very heavy over South Tamil Nadu on Wednesday and Friday; and over South Kerala — on Thursday and Friday.

Heavy to very heavy rainfall is being forecast at isolated places over North Tamil Nadu, Puducherry, Mahe, Karaikal and North Kerala on Wednesday and Thursday; and isolated heavy on Friday. Heavy rainfall has been forecast also for South Coastal Andhra Pradesh on Wednesday and Thursday and over Lakshadweep on Thursday and Friday.

High winds around Lanka, TN

Squally winds with speed reaching 65-75 km/hr gusting to 85 km/hr will gradually increase to 70-80 km/hr gusting to 90 km/hr over South-West Bay of Bengal, along and off the Sri Lanka coast from Wednesday morning to night, and decrease thereafter.

Winds with speed reaching 45-55 km/hr gusting to 65 km/hr may prevail over the Comorin area, the Gulf of Mannar and along, and off the Kanniyakumari, Tirunelveli, Thoothukudi and Ramanathapuram in South Tamil Nadu, and Thiruvananthapuram, Kollam, Pathanamthitta and Alappuzha in South Kerala from Wednesday forenoon.

Adverse sea conditions

The wind speed will rise to 55-65 kmph gusting to 75 km/hr from this evening, and to 70-80 km/hr gusting to 90 km/hr from Thursday evening till Friday morning, and decrease thereafter. The wind speeds may reach 45-55 km/hr gusting to 65 km/hr over the Lakshadweep-Maldives and adjoining South-East Arabian Sea from Thursday morning for next two days.

The sea condition is ‘very rough to high’ (wave heights of 20-30 ft) over South-West and adjoining South-East Bay until later this morning and gradually improve thereafter. It is ‘very rough to high’ also over the South-West Bay and along and off the East Sri Lanka coast, which would continue till into the same night.

The sea conditions will be ‘rough to very rough’ (8-20 ft) over the Comorin area, the Gulf of Mannar and along, and off the South Tamil Nadu-Kerala and West Sri Lanka coast on Wednesday and ‘very rough to high’ on both Thursday and Friday. It would be ‘rough to very rough’ over Lakshadweep-Maldives and adjoining South-East Arabian Sea on these days. Total suspension of fishing operations has been advised over these stretches during these days.

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